When History Cycles Turn: What Comes Next for Private Schools?
Over the summer months, we’ve traced the arc of history using the 80 year cycles or “saeculum” laid out in Neil Howe’s, The Fourth Turning Is Here, but with a focus on how private schools were affected and how they managed each stage of the cycle.
From the optimism of the post-war boom to the disillusionment of the Unraveling, and from the upheaval of 2008 financial crisis to the lingering volatility of today's economic and cultural climate, we have discussed how schools pivoted and met the changing needs of their communities throughout each societal mood shift.
We've walked through each Turning. We've named the crises. We've examined the responses. Now the question becomes: what do we do with it all?
A Quick Refresher
Let’s briefly revisit the key phases:
The High (1946–1964): Enrollment boomed as families sought stability and faith in institutions surged. Private schools thrived as aspirational symbols of order and opportunity.
The Awakening (1964–1984): Cultural upheaval sparked the rise of religious and alternative schools. Independence became a form of expression.
The Unraveling (1984–2007): Economic growth masked growing inequality. Mistrust in public systems expanded. Private schools leaned on prestige, specialization, and donor-driven campaigns to navigate an increasingly consumer-driven market.
The Crisis (2007–Present): From the Great Recession to the COVID Boom, this has been a defining era of instability. Schools adapted through flexibility, mission focus, and strategic repositioning.
Each era left their fingerprints on the independent school sector and each held lessons about how institutions survived, adapted, or faltered. When you are in calm seas, you can make steady and incremental adjustments to your heading. But in a storm or high chop, you must act quickly and anticipate not just the next wave, but the next three. We need to become “storm captains” to navigate the next waves coming at us.
Today’s Pressure Points Are Predictable
Let’s tie it together.
Recession fears, inflation, enrollment plateaus, teacher shortages, polarization in the classroom, these are not surprises but rather symptoms of a society mid-Crisis. We've seen them before, and we will see them again. Viewing these uncertain times from a higher level, or longer time-period, helps bring clarity to the unknown, makes our worries manageable, and challenges more solvable.
In our earlier articles, we looked at:
These weren’t just ideas on what schools could do to weather the storm, they were previews of what schools will need to do more of in the years ahead.
How Do You Know If You're Prepared?
Here are four simple questions every school should be asking:
If the economy worsens next year, what tuition strategy would we deploy?
If we lose key staff mid-year, do we keep our communication and operational continuity intact?
If a controversial issue erupts locally, does our messaging and mission hold up and help families bond closer with the school community or push them away looking for alternatives?
If a parent or donor asked "Why this school now?", could every staff member answer clearly?
If these scenarios give you pause, it’s not a failure. It’s a cue. And now is the best time to act on it.
Five Anchors for the Next Turning
We work and talk to schools of all shapes and sizes from all parts of the United States and whether you’re an international boarding school in Florida, Maine, or Hawai’i, or a day school in Texas, Maryland, or California, there are overarching themes to these cycles that can give us broad solutions to implement in our unique mission-appropriate ways. These five principles should guide most, if not all, private school leadership through the rest of this Crisis Era and into what comes next:
Mission Over Marketing
🔹 Let your values speak louder than your features. Positioning is important, but only when it's rooted in purpose. Lean in to your unique value propositions more with every conversation, mailer, or social post you put out there.
Community Over Competition
🔹 Enrollment is not a zero-sum game. Schools that collaborate with others, build local trust, and serve as stabilizers in their region will earn longevity.
Clarity Over Complexity
🔹 Parents are overwhelmed. Simplify your message. Make your case obvious. Be consistent and above all be genuine.
Data Over Drama
🔹 Emotional decisions derail strategy. Build dashboards. Track ROI. Watch long-term trends. It’s too easy these days not to be letting the data guide decision making.
Adaptation Over Assumptions
🔹 The specific tactic that worked in 2015 won’t work in 2025. Keep testing, learning, and evolving new ways to implement the broader and unchanging principles proven to weather these storms.
Let your values speak louder than your features. Positioning is important, but only when it's rooted in purpose. Lean in to your unique value propositions more with every conversation, mailer, or social post you put out there.
Stay Positive. The Natural Balance is In Our Favor.
In The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe explain that the end of a Crisis doesn’t bring back the world we lost, but rather something entirely new. Each turning has its unique rewriting of society for the next 80 or so years, typically through advances in technology that are forever changing. Whether its the Industrial Revolution of America just after the Civil War, the Nuclear Age that began after WWII, or what is shaping up to become the AI Era that undoubtably will be our new future when the dust settles from this current Crisis Era, the world will be remodeled accordingly. No matter which outcome has come before or will come in the future, historical truths remain; the institutions that survive become the bedrock of that new order.
Your school can be one of those institutions!
We must recognize the moment that we are all in and remember what history teaches about adapting to them. Secondarily, when the dust settles and the new “High Era” begins, rebuild with intention!
The cycle is still turning with the storm not yet overcome. But we’ve reviewed past lessons, charted our maps, and are ready to sail with strategy and optimism, not just survival and uncertainty.
