A couple years ago I found myself completely engaged in a book that illustrated the cycles of history through the lens of generational experiences. Hearing, through real examples, the natural similarities in decision making, culture, and repetitive generational perspectives of the nation broadened my understanding of where we are and where we are most likely going.

Being that private school enrollment is so attached to the general economic state of the school’s local area, and more than just local for boarding schools, what were the valuable takeaways that can help guide private school marketers for any challenges that lie ahead?

This blog series is an attempt to unpack those questions and from that, better strategize how your particular school can ride the wave of each cycle of history. While our current “turning” is not one of happiness and prosperity, as its corresponding “Crisis Era” name implies, it is important to stay optimistic in knowing schools have been here before and excelled. We are simply lucky enough to reap the resulting benefits of their past efforts.

With that, let’s begin with where we are, and where history suggests we are going. From there we can recreate the successful strategies that continued their storied histories through the most challenging of times. Upwards and onwards!

Understanding the Fourth Turning: A Crash Course

Historians William Strauss and Neil Howe developed the generational theory known as the "Fourth Turning" in the late 1990s. It suggests that history moves in cycles, each roughly 80 to 100 years long.

Within that larger cycle (called a saeculum), there are four "turnings":

The High – a post-crisis era of strong institutions and social cohesion
The Awakening – a cultural upheaval that challenges the previous order
The Unraveling – trust in institutions fades, individualism surges
The Crisis – society reaches a breaking point, and major conflict and reordering ensue

According to this model, the United States entered its current Fourth Turning in 2007 or 2008, marked by the financial crisis, escalating polarization, and declining trust in virtually every institution, from government to media to education.

And if the theory holds, we are now deep into the final and most volatile phase of the saeculum: the Climax of the Crisis. Think Revolutionary War, Civil War, Great Depression, and World War II. These are the kinds of moments that define a Fourth Turning.

These moments in history were marked with major and rapid changes for society as a whole, and in turn, private school enrollment.

Why Private Education Can’t Ignore This Moment

Private schools have always operated at the intersection of legacy and reinvention. Yet many are still planning as if tomorrow will resemble yesterday.

The Fourth Turning framework challenges that thinking. It describes a time not of gradual change but of rapid transformation. For private schools, we are already beginning to see these fluctuations in enrollments, and the need to continue forward-thinking preparation and positioning is paramount.

Consider the following conditions:

Tuition pressure is mounting. Household income growth is not keeping pace with rising tuition. Economic inequality is squeezing the middle class, many of whom private schools depend on.

Demographic shifts are real. Birth rates have declined, and competition for a smaller pool of school-aged children is intensifying. For many schools, the migration trends peaking during the COVID years was just one more enrollment pressure admissions and Marcom offices had to contend with.

Institutional trust is eroding. Parents are more skeptical of all institutions, including schools. Culture wars are increasingly influencing school choice.

Economic instability is persistent. Inflation, high interest rates, and job uncertainty are no longer temporary setbacks. They are features of this phase of the cycle.

According to the 2024 InspirED MarCom Report, only 41 percent of private schools said they track enrollment marketing results well or very well. In an environment where every inquiry counts and every tuition dollar matters, this lack of visibility is a major vulnerability.

The lesson is clear. In a Fourth Turning, adaptation is not optional. It is essential.

What History Tells Us About Institutional Survival

Understanding this theory gives us the opportunity to study how institutions responded in prior turnings.

Each cycle reshaped education in significant ways:

Post-WWII High (1946 to 1964): Government investment in education boomed. Public trust in institutions soared. Many private schools expanded or were established during this time.
Awakening Era (1964 to 1984): Cultural upheaval challenged traditional values. Alternative and religious schools emerged to reflect new ideological alignments.
Unraveling Era (1984 to 2007): Economic expansion masked growing inequality. Private schools emphasized individualism, specialization, and elite status.
Current Crisis (2007 to today): Economic stress and political division have exposed the fragility of many education models.

In each case, schools that thrived were those that aligned their purpose with the emotional and cultural needs of the moment.

The Characteristics of Resilient Schools in a Crisis

Families navigating a Crisis era are not just shopping for test scores and facilities. They are looking for institutions that provide stability, relevance, and a path forward.

Schools that succeed in this environment tend to:

Deliver clear, compelling mission-driven messaging
Prioritize community and student well-being
Make strategic, data-informed decisions
Offer leadership and clarity when others are silent

In the aftermath of COVID, many schools learned these lessons the hard way. The ones that communicated transparently, remained mission-focused, and demonstrated adaptability built long-term trust with their communities. These are not soft skills. They are core differentiators.

Economic Signals Every School Should Be Watching

A quick glance at current data reveals the storm we’re sailing into:

U.S. birth rate is at its lowest level in decades
Credit card debt is at an all-time high, surpassing $1.3 trillion
Inflation and interest rates remain high despite federal efforts
Job market volatility continues, especially in white-collar sectors

These signals tell us one thing. The middle and upper-middle class are under stress. Families that once saw private school as a natural choice are now weighing it against major sacrifices or opting out altogether, particularly where there are strong public school options or state-funded charter and alternative school options.

This is not a one-year dip. It’s a long-term shift. And it’s unfolding during a phase of history where large institutional change is both likely and necessary.

Action Steps for School Leaders

We have seen through historical evidence that this moment requires more than incremental improvements. It calls for a mission-driven strategic realignment.

Here are some good steps to consider beginning over the summer planning months if you have not already started:

Reevaluate Your Value Proposition: Your school’s value must be more than academic excellence. Families need to know why your school is a smart investment during uncertain times. Make your mission visible and practical.
Strengthen Retention Systems: Enrollment is not just about new families. It’s about keeping current ones. Continue building the programs, communications, and support networks that help families commit for the long term.
Increase Marketing Intelligence: If you aren’t tracking marketing performance, you are guessing. Invest in platforms and partnerships that provide clarity about what’s working. These will be key indicators for optimizing your year-to-year success.
Lead With Vision: Now is the time to claim your role as a community leader. Speak to the concerns of your families. Address what’s happening in society. Be the school that doesn’t look away.
Build Financial Flexibility: Don’t wait for crisis budgets to plan your next move. Explore tuition assistance models, alternative revenue streams, and endowment strategies that support stability.

Looking Ahead

We should not view The Fourth Turning as a prophecy but more like a lens. One that, when applied effectively, can help school leaders prepare for the real-world challenges that history has already shown are likely.

Private schools have unique opportunities at this moment. With trust in traditional institutions declining, independent schools can rise as places of grounded leadership and community formation.

In the next article in this series, we’ll examine the last Crisis Era up close (from 2007 to the present) and identify what we can learn from the schools that navigated tough moments successfully.

This is not just about theory. This is about your strategy, your messaging, and your future.

Schoolcraft Digital helps private schools build future-ready enrollment and marketing strategies. If your school is ready to lead in uncertain times, let’s start that conversation.

Winter is Coming: Why Private Schools Must Prepare for the Cycles of History